In recent decades, the Pontine Plain has seen an increase in average temperatures of between 1.7 and 2.0°C, well above the global average of 1.5°C. This warming has been accompanied by an increase in prolonged droughts and heat waves. These climate changes are altering the distribution of pollinators, reducing their habitats and causing their local disappearance. Being ectothermic, insects are directly affected by variations in temperature and precipitation, which increase stress and mortality. The plants on which they depend are also affected, risking changing phenological cycles or disappearing, with consequent temporal misalignments that reduce available food resources.
Climatologists develop future climate “scenarios” based on the mitigation measures adopted, measures that range from continued use of fossil fuels to a complete transition to renewable energy. Biodiversity impacts can be analyzed with species “distribution models,” which project how pollinator distributions might change under ecological demands and climate scenarios.
Models applied to pollinators in the Pontine Plain show a worrying decline, especially in flat and agricultural areas, with more marked losses in the pessimistic scenario. Hilly areas show species gains, but large portions of the plain suffer widespread loss. Emission mitigation strategies can reduce negative impacts, but not eliminate them completely, requiring field interventions, such as sustainable agricultural practices and increased host plants, promoted by the BeeAdapt project.
Text edited by: Dino Biancolini and Marina Baldi, CNR – Institute for BioEconomy
Sources:
Guisan, A., W. Thuiller, and N. E. Zimmermann. 2017. Habitat Suitability and Distribution Models: With Applications in R. Page Habitat Suitability and Distribution Models. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Fick, S. E., and R. J. Hijmans. 2017. WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 37:4302–4315.
Vasiliev, D., and S. Greenwood. 2021. The role of climate change in pollinator decline across the Northern Hemisphere is underestimated. Science of The Total Environment 775:145788.
GBIF.org. 2023a. Apoidea. Global Biodiversity Information Facility. https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/download/0060344-231002084531237.
GBIF.org. 2023b. Lepidoptera. Global Biodiversity Information Facility. https://www.gbif.org/occurrence/download/0060342-231002084531237.
